Gross Domestic Product Trends and Issues


GDP CURRENT QUARTER AND OUTLOOK:

GDP grew at an annualized rate of 3.2% in Q1 2018. Continued growth compared to the 2.3% average growth in GDP since Q1 2010. This growth over prior quarter took place as the age of the current economic recovery in April 2019 is now 118 months in length and the second longest in recent history.

Forecasts for GDP growth over the next few years start at 2.1% - 2.4% for 2019 and ranging from 1.7% to 2.0% for 2020. Slower growth appears to be theme.

In reviewing details on the components of GDP in the graphs and tables below, the open question remains:

Which components of GDP can produce above expectation and above historical trendline growth such that these expectations of low GDP growth can be exceeded and the economic expansion can continue?

 
GDP Component Levels and QoQ Growth Rates:  Services is the largest component of GDP with a growth rate this quarter of only 2.0%.  Highest growth areas this quarter were in: Non-residential Intellectual Property Goods - 8.4%, National Defense - 4.1%, and State & Local Government - 3.9%.

GDP Component Levels and QoQ Growth Rates: Services is the largest component of GDP with a growth rate this quarter of only 2.0%.

Highest growth areas this quarter were in: Non-residential Intellectual Property Goods - 8.4%, National Defense - 4.1%, and State & Local Government - 3.9%.

GDP Component Contribution to QoQ GDP Growth:  This chart shows the contribution to GDP growth this quarter by key components.  This contribution essentially weights the GDP share of the component and its growth rate this quarter.  For Q1 2019, lower net exports and increase in inventories contributed 1.7 percentage points, or more than one-half of the 3.2% growth in GDP.

GDP Component Contribution to QoQ GDP Growth: This chart shows the contribution to GDP growth this quarter by key components.

This contribution essentially weights the GDP share of the component and its growth rate this quarter.

For Q1 2019, lower net exports and increase in inventories contributed 1.7 percentage points, or more than one-half of the 3.2% growth in GDP.