HOUSING PRICES - NATIONAL

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Home Prices Through the Cycle

2000 to Pre-crisis Peak to Great Recession Trough to Current

ALL PRICE TIERS

HPI Price Walk:    2000 to Peak:  Home prices more than doubled; rising  11.2% annually .   Peak to Trough:  Decline of 35%, or  (7.6)% annually .   Trough to Current:  Home prices surging again - and have finally recovered all price losses; home prices have risen at  6.4% rate annually  since trough.   Current from Peak:  Home prices  surpass prior peak by 3% .

HPI Price Walk:

2000 to Peak: Home prices more than doubled; rising 11.2% annually.

Peak to Trough: Decline of 35%, or (7.6)% annually.

Trough to Current: Home prices surging again - and have finally recovered all price losses; home prices have risen at 6.4% rate annually since trough.

Current from Peak: Home prices surpass prior peak by 3%.

Trends in Yearly Home Prices:  Significant rises in home prices prior to Great Recession. Significant declines in home prices during Great Recession. Strong bounce-back spike in home prices followed by moderate price gains.  YoY change in home prices: 3.0%.

Trends in Yearly Home Prices: Significant rises in home prices prior to Great Recession. Significant declines in home prices during Great Recession. Strong bounce-back spike in home prices followed by moderate price gains. YoY change in home prices: 3.0%.

HPI vs. CPI:   Pre-recession price run-up steady and accelerated prior to peak. This rise was followed by steep and sustained period of decreasing home prices. Finally, there was a stubbornly long and slow descent to the final bottom. In recent years, average home values have carried out another upward progression at a consistently faster rate than the CPI inflation measure.

HPI vs. CPI:

Pre-recession price run-up steady and accelerated prior to peak. This rise was followed by steep and sustained period of decreasing home prices. Finally, there was a stubbornly long and slow descent to the final bottom. In recent years, average home values have carried out another upward progression at a consistently faster rate than the CPI inflation measure.

MSA Housing Prices Year-over-Year:  Year-over-year home price increases varied dramatically by market and diverging from the U.S. average of 3.0%. Las Vegas market was up 9.7%, San Diego was up only 1.1%. Seven metro areas had lower home price increases than the U.S. average. And two metro areas - Phoenix and Las Vegas - more than doubled the U.S. average.

MSA Housing Prices Year-over-Year: Year-over-year home price increases varied dramatically by market and diverging from the U.S. average of 3.0%. Las Vegas market was up 9.7%, San Diego was up only 1.1%. Seven metro areas had lower home price increases than the U.S. average. And two metro areas - Phoenix and Las Vegas - more than doubled the U.S. average.

Home Price Changes 2000 to Peak:  With the U.S. average home price up +100% from 2000 to Peak, it is noteworthy where MSAs had home prices rising dramatically faster and MSAs that showed much slower rises in home prices.  One MSA nearly tripled in price:  Miami.   Three MSAs increased by more than 2.5X: Los Angeles, Washington, D.C. and San Diego.  Five MSAs more than doubled in home price:  Phoenix ,  Las Vegas ,  Tampa ,  San Francisco,  and  New York .  Six MSAs had home price increases of less than 50%:  Denver ,  Atlanta ,  Charlotte ,  Detroit ,  Dallas  and  Cleveland .

Home Price Changes 2000 to Peak: With the U.S. average home price up +100% from 2000 to Peak, it is noteworthy where MSAs had home prices rising dramatically faster and MSAs that showed much slower rises in home prices.

One MSA nearly tripled in price: Miami.

Three MSAs increased by more than 2.5X: Los Angeles, Washington, D.C. and San Diego.

Five MSAs more than doubled in home price: Phoenix, Las Vegas, Tampa, San Francisco, and New York.

Six MSAs had home price increases of less than 50%: Denver, Atlanta, Charlotte, Detroit, Dallas and Cleveland.

Home Price Changes Peak to Trough:  With the U.S. average home price down 35% from Peak to Trough, there were some interesting findings.  Seven of the MSAs that showed the highest run up in home prices suffered the deepest price declines of over 40%:  Los Angeles ,  San Diego ,  San Francisco, Tampa ,  Miami ,  Phoenix  and  Las Vegas .  And, the  Detroit  MSA fell nearly 49% while it only had a 27% increase in home prices to Peak.  Four MSAs had home price declines of 20% or less:  Charlotte ,  Denver, Boston  and  Dallas .

Home Price Changes Peak to Trough: With the U.S. average home price down 35% from Peak to Trough, there were some interesting findings.

Seven of the MSAs that showed the highest run up in home prices suffered the deepest price declines of over 40%: Los Angeles, San Diego, San Francisco, Tampa, Miami, Phoenix and Las Vegas.

And, the Detroit MSA fell nearly 49% while it only had a 27% increase in home prices to Peak.

Four MSAs had home price declines of 20% or less: Charlotte, Denver, Boston and Dallas.

Home Price Changes Trough to Current:  Since the Trough, U.S. home prices have risen approximately 59%.  Two MSAs have more than doubled in price:  San Francisco  and  Las Vegas .  Six MSAs have shown home price increases of between 80% - 100%:  Seattle, Detroit, Miami, Phoenix, Denver  and  Atlanta.   Six MSAs had price recoveries from 50% to 80%:  San Diego, Portland, Los Angeles, Tampa, Dallas  and  Minnesota.   Six MSAs only had home prices improve less than 50%:  Boston, Charlotte ,  Chicago ,  Washington, D. C. ,  Cleveland  and  New York .

Home Price Changes Trough to Current: Since the Trough, U.S. home prices have risen approximately 59%.

Two MSAs have more than doubled in price: San Francisco and Las Vegas.

Six MSAs have shown home price increases of between 80% - 100%: Seattle, Detroit, Miami, Phoenix, Denver and Atlanta.

Six MSAs had price recoveries from 50% to 80%: San Diego, Portland, Los Angeles, Tampa, Dallas and Minnesota.

Six MSAs only had home prices improve less than 50%: Boston, Charlotte, Chicago, Washington, D. C., Cleveland and New York.

Home Price Changes from Peak to Current:  From the Peak prior to the Great Recession through the Trough, U.S. home prices on average have recovered to 2.9% above Peak.  Four MSAs are 20% to more than 50% above their prior Peak:  Seattle, Dallas, Portland  and  Denver .  Three MSAs are 10% - 20% above their prior Peak:  Charlotte, Boston  and  San Francisco .  Six MSAs remain approximately 9% or more below their prior Peak:  Washington, D.C. ,  Tampa ,  Chicago ,  Miami ,  Phoenix  and  Las Vegas .

Home Price Changes from Peak to Current: From the Peak prior to the Great Recession through the Trough, U.S. home prices on average have recovered to 2.9% above Peak.

Four MSAs are 20% to more than 50% above their prior Peak: Seattle, Dallas, Portland and Denver.

Three MSAs are 10% - 20% above their prior Peak: Charlotte, Boston and San Francisco.

Six MSAs remain approximately 9% or more below their prior Peak: Washington, D.C., Tampa, Chicago, Miami, Phoenix and Las Vegas.


Housing prices - trends by price tiers

Housing Price Tiers: An interesting and important statistic for assessing housing prices is to observe the changes in home prices by price tier (as measured here by S&P Case Shiller). While there are differences in the patterns across each MSA, in general, the Low Tier (lowest one-third of home sales in that MSA by sale price) shows much more dramatic movements - both up and down. And, most recently, there is much more rapid price increases in this tier.


Home Prices Through the Cycle

2000 to Pre-crisis Peak to Great Recession Trough to Current

LOW PRICE TIER ONLY

Low Sales Price Tier Year-over-Year Price Performance:

Las Vegas showed nearly 15% YoY price increase.

Four MSAs have YoY price increases of 8% or more: Atlanta, Tampa, Phoenix and Minneapolis.

Six MSAs have YoY price increases between 4% - 8%: Seattle, Denver, Los Angeles, New York, Chicago, Portland and Boston.

Washington, D.C., Los Angeles, San Francisco, San Diego and Miami had price increases approximately 4% or less.

Home Price Changes 2000 to Peak:  With the U.S. average home price up +11% annually from 2000 to Peak, it is noteworthy where the Low Tier MSAs had home prices rising dramatically faster and MSAs that showed much slower rises in home prices.  Six MSAs had annual price increases of 15% or more:  Los Angeles, San Diego ,  Washington, D.C.,   Tampa, San Francisco  and  Miami.   Four MSAs were up annually between 10% and 15%:  New York, Boston, Las Vegas and Phoenix .  Four MSAs had home price increases of 7% to 10%:  Minneapolis, Seattle, Chicago  and  Portland .  Only  Denver  and  Atlanta  had home price increases averaging less than 6% annually.

Home Price Changes 2000 to Peak: With the U.S. average home price up +11% annually from 2000 to Peak, it is noteworthy where the Low Tier MSAs had home prices rising dramatically faster and MSAs that showed much slower rises in home prices.

Six MSAs had annual price increases of 15% or more: Los Angeles, San Diego, Washington, D.C., Tampa, San Francisco and Miami.

Four MSAs were up annually between 10% and 15%: New York, Boston, Las Vegas and Phoenix.

Four MSAs had home price increases of 7% to 10%: Minneapolis, Seattle, Chicago and Portland.

Only Denver and Atlanta had home price increases averaging less than 6% annually.

Home Price Changes Peak to Trough:  With the U.S. average home price down (7.6)% annually from Peak to Trough, there were some interesting findings within the Low Price Tier which bore much more significant declines.  Seven of the MSAs suffered the deep and steep price declines of over 20% annually:  Phoenix, San Francisco, Los Angeles ,  San Diego ,  Washington, D.C. ,  Las Vegas  and  Atlanta .  Six of the MSAs suffered home price declines from Peak in excess of (10)% included  Tampa, Minneapolis, Chicago, Seattle, Miami and Portland .  Only  New York ,  Denver  and  Boston  had declines in home prices averaging less than 10% annually.

Home Price Changes Peak to Trough: With the U.S. average home price down (7.6)% annually from Peak to Trough, there were some interesting findings within the Low Price Tier which bore much more significant declines.

Seven of the MSAs suffered the deep and steep price declines of over 20% annually: Phoenix, San Francisco, Los Angeles, San Diego, Washington, D.C., Las Vegas and Atlanta.

Six of the MSAs suffered home price declines from Peak in excess of (10)% included Tampa, Minneapolis, Chicago, Seattle, Miami and Portland.

Only New York, Denver and Boston had declines in home prices averaging less than 10% annually.

Home Price Changes Trough to Current:   Two MSAs have shown renewed home price increases in the Low Price Tier of greater than 15% annually:  Atlanta  and  Las Vegas .  The Low Price Tier in seven of the MSAs had price recoveries of greater 10% annually:  Tampa, Portland, Seattle, Minneapolis, Phoenix, San Francisco  and  Chicago .   Denver, Los Angeles, San Diego  and  Boston  had home prices in the Low Price Tier grow between U.S. overall average of 7.0% and 10%.  Only three MSAs had home prices in the Low Price Tier improve less than 7%:  Miami ,  New York  and  Washington, D.C. .

Home Price Changes Trough to Current:

Two MSAs have shown renewed home price increases in the Low Price Tier of greater than 15% annually: Atlanta and Las Vegas.

The Low Price Tier in seven of the MSAs had price recoveries of greater 10% annually: Tampa, Portland, Seattle, Minneapolis, Phoenix, San Francisco and Chicago.

Denver, Los Angeles, San Diego and Boston had home prices in the Low Price Tier grow between U.S. overall average of 7.0% and 10%.

Only three MSAs had home prices in the Low Price Tier improve less than 7%: Miami, New York and Washington, D.C..

Home Price Changes Since Pre-crisis Peak:  With the U.S. average home price finally reaching pre-crisis peak, there were some interesting findings within the Low Price Tier.  Home prices for the Low Tier in  Dallas  are +80% higher than previous peak.  Portland  is above prior peak by 44%. And  Boston  and  Seattle  low price tier homes are more than 20% higher than prior peak.  Four of the MSAs are flat to 10% above the prior peak:  San Francisco,   Atlanta,   San Diego  and  Minneapolis .  Four of the MSAs remain (10)% or more below the prior peak included  Washington, D.C., Chicago, Miami  and  Phoenix .   Las Vegas and New York  are 8% to 10% below their Low Tier prior peak.   Los Angeles and Tampa  are 3% or less below the Low Tier prior peak.

Home Price Changes Since Pre-crisis Peak: With the U.S. average home price finally reaching pre-crisis peak, there were some interesting findings within the Low Price Tier.

Home prices for the Low Tier in Dallas are +80% higher than previous peak. Portland is above prior peak by 44%. And Boston and Seattle low price tier homes are more than 20% higher than prior peak.

Four of the MSAs are flat to 10% above the prior peak: San Francisco, Atlanta, San Diego and Minneapolis.

Four of the MSAs remain (10)% or more below the prior peak included Washington, D.C., Chicago, Miami and Phoenix.

Las Vegas and New York are 8% to 10% below their Low Tier prior peak.

Los Angeles and Tampa are 3% or less below the Low Tier prior peak.


Housing Price Trends Across Metropolitan Markets

Regional Home Prices: Upper right quadrant reflects high priced MSAs that are also experiencing above average home price appreciation.

Home Price Appreciation Relative to CPI: Home prices in four MSAs have failed to keep up with inflation (CPI as measure). Large variation in performance across these MSAs.

Homeowner Equity and Negative Equity: As reported by CoreLogic, nationally homeowner negative equity has been steadily declining since the Great Recession. And recently, it has begun to level out. However, there are various metropolitan markets that continue to reflect higher levels of negative homeowner’s equity.


Housing Affordability Across Metropolitan Markets

Regional Home Affordability: Upper left quadrant reflects MSAs showing above average home affordability based upon NAHB's Housing Opportunity Index - percentage of homes affordable at MSA median income. The lower right quadrant reflects lesser affordability.

Regional Population Growth: Many of the MSAs with higher home prices and lower home affordability are also experiencing above average population growth. This is one of several factors influencing home price increases.

Regional Housing Affordability Viewing housing affordability based upon Home P/E ratio (median home price divided by median family income) and NAHB Housing Opportunity Index in scatter plot isolates affordable (lower right quadrant) and less affordable (upper left quadrant).

Housing Affordability - Home Purchase: Viewing housing affordability from broad perspective - housing prices as multiple of family income, we can see the dramatic differences across various MSAs in the cost to "acquire" a home. National housing affordability statistics mask the true story conveyed by MSA level data.


Economic Factors and Impact on Housing Prices

Housing Prices and Job Growth: While the direction of housing prices are impacted by a variety of factors, there does appear to be a close correlation to job growth as shown in latest 3 months change in non-farm payroll.

Housing Prices and Unemployment Rate:  The direction and level of the unemployment rate bears a reasonably close correlation to changes in home prices.