HOUSING PRICES - NORTHEAST

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NEW YORK MSA

HPI Price Walk - All Tiers:

2000 to Peak: Home prices more than doubled, or 12.0% annualized.

Peak to Trough: Decline of 27%, or (5.5)% annualized.

Trough to Current: Home prices slowly rising - up 28% recovering only portion of price losses; or 3.2% annualized.

Current from Peak: Home prices remain (6)% below peak.

HPI Price Walk - Low Tier:

2000 to Peak: Home prices climb 2.6X, or 14.2% annualized.

Peak to Trough: Decline of 38%, or (8.6)% annualized.

Trough to Current: Home prices slowly rising - up 46% recovering only portion of price losses; or 5.5% annualized.

Current from Peak: Home prices remain (10)% below peak.

Trends in Yearly Home Prices:  Strong rises in home prices prior to Great Recession. Significant declines in home prices during Great Recession. Strong bounce-back spike in home prices followed by moderate price gains.

Trends in Yearly Home Prices: Strong rises in home prices prior to Great Recession. Significant declines in home prices during Great Recession. Strong bounce-back spike in home prices followed by moderate price gains.

HPI Tiers:   All price tiers show moderate increases. All price tiers remain well below pre-recession peaks.

HPI Tiers:

All price tiers show moderate increases. All price tiers remain well below pre-recession peaks.

Home Affordability: Home affordability is much more costly than U.S. averages.

Home "P/E" ratio = 5.5X. Median home purchase is 5.5X median family income compared to 3.7X for U.S.

HOI = 28.9%. Only ~29% of families can afford median priced home (NAHB HOI). Home affordability has been deteriorating.

HPI vs. CPI:   Pre-recession rise in home prices rapid with more moderated decline. Most recently there had been steady increases in price. Price recovery has occurred even though New York MSA remains with a significant level of homes with negative equity (per CoreLogic report = +5% of all homes with mortgages are underwater).

HPI vs. CPI:

Pre-recession rise in home prices rapid with more moderated decline. Most recently there had been steady increases in price. Price recovery has occurred even though New York MSA remains with a significant level of homes with negative equity (per CoreLogic report = +5% of all homes with mortgages are underwater).


BOSTON MSA

HPI Price Walk - All Tiers:

2000 to Peak: Home prices rose 82%, or 10.7% annualized.

Peak to Trough: Decline of 20%, or (6.4)% annualized.

Trough to Current: Home prices rising - up 46% recovering all price losses; or 5.2% annualized.

Current from Peak: Home prices now 17% above peak.

HPI Price Walk - All Tiers:

2000 to Peak: Home prices more than double and rise 119%, or 13.9% annualized.

Peak to Trough: Decline of 32%, or (7.0)% annualized.

Trough to Current: Home prices rising - up 81% and recovering substantially more than price losses; or 7.6% annualized.

Current from Peak: Home prices now 22% above peak.

Trends in Yearly Home Prices:  Strong rises in home prices prior to Great Recession. Moderate declines in home prices during Great Recession. Strong bounce-back spike in home prices followed by moderate price gains.

Trends in Yearly Home Prices: Strong rises in home prices prior to Great Recession. Moderate declines in home prices during Great Recession. Strong bounce-back spike in home prices followed by moderate price gains.

HPI Tiers:   All price tiers show significant increases.  All price tiers are well above pre-recession peaks.  Most notable is the dramatic price break out for the low-tier and the accelerated rate of increase experienced.

HPI Tiers:

All price tiers show significant increases. All price tiers are well above pre-recession peaks. Most notable is the dramatic price break out for the low-tier and the accelerated rate of increase experienced.

Home Affordability: Home affordability is much more costly than U.S. averages.

Home "P/E" ratio = 4.7X. Median home purchase is just under 5X median family income compared to 3.7X for U.S.

HOI = 38.9%. Only ~39% of families can afford median priced home (NAHB HOI).

HPI vs. CPI:   Pre-recession price increases as well as following decline much more moderate. However, prices rose significantly higher than peak.

HPI vs. CPI:

Pre-recession price increases as well as following decline much more moderate. However, prices rose significantly higher than peak.