KEY ECONOMIC INDICATORS

 

GDP GROWTH

  • GDP growth solid, but slowing.

  • Aging economy in 11th year of expansion.

  • Consumption components remain strong; investment components are weak.

GDP Growth Quarterly

Components of GDP Growth

inflation

  • Remains slightly below Federal Reserve target of 2%.

  • Not concerning at this time.

CPI - All Items Yearly % Change.

Core PCE Index Yearly % Change.

JOBS & UNEMPLOYMENT

  • Job growth is solid, but slowing.

  • Unemployment rates are holding at historically low levels.

Nonfarm Payroll Growth

Unemployment Rate

INTEREST RATES

  • Yield curve has fallen from year ago with long end near historic lows.

  • Yield curve remains flat to slightly inverted.

U.S. Treasury Yield Curve

U.S. Treasury Yield Curve Slope

PURCHASING INDICATORS

  • ISM PMI manufacturing index is declining and at recent lows.

  • ISM PMI services index is weakening.

ISM PMI Manufacturing Index

ISM PMI Services Index

FEDERAL SPENDING & DEBT

  • Federal deficits at $1 trillion annually.

  • Federal debt outstanding rises toward $24 trillion.

Federal Spending Deficit / Surplus

Federal Debt Outstanding