KEY ECONOMIC INDICATORS

 

GDP GROWTH
  • Slow, steady growth.
  • ⇧ 3.1% YoY.
    		•

    GDP Growth

    YoY Contribution to GDP Growth

    FISCAL POLICY
  • Federal deficit $(1.7) tr.
  • Deficit spending high.
  • Federal debt $34.0 tr.
    		•

    Federal Spending Deficit / Surplus

    Federal Debt Outstanding

    MONETARY POLICY
  • Fed halts rate hikes.
  • Balance sheet decreases.
    		•

    JOBS & UNEMPLOYMENT
  • Job growth: ⇧ 1.9%.
  • Unemployment: 3.8%.
    		•

    Nonfarm Payroll Growth

    Unemployment Rate

    THE CONSUMER
  • Personal Income: ⇧ 4.4%.
  • Spending: ⇧ 4.9%.
    		•

    Consumer Income

    Consumer Personal Consumption

    EQUITY MARKETS
  • DJIA: ⇧ 12.9%.
  • DJIA at or near highs.
  • NASDAQ: ⇧ 35.6%.
  • NASDAQ at or near highs.
    		•

    Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA)

    NASDAQ Composite Index

    RISK LEVELS
  • VIX remains low.
  • AAA OAS remains low .
    		•

    CBOE Volatility Index (VIX)

    AAA OAS Spread

    INFLATION
  • Inflation falling.
  • CPI = ⇧ 3.5%.
  • Core PCE = ⇧ 2.8%.
    		•

    Core CPI Yearly % Change.

    Core PCE Index Yearly % Change.

    INTEREST RATES
  • Yield curve inverted.
  • 10-yr CMT = 4.35%.
  • ⇧ 100 bps YoY.
    		•

    U.S. Treasury Yield Curve

    U.S. Treasury Yield Curve Slope

    CORPORATE BOND MARKET
  • Issuance up LTM.
  • O/S debt record levels.
  • Aaa Yield: 5.01%
    		•

    Corporate Bond Issuance and Outstanding

    AAA Corporate Bonds: Yields and Spreads to U.S. Treasuries

    HOUSING SECTOR
    • Home prices ⇧ 6.6% YoY.
    • Housing starts ⇩ (5.4)% YoY.

    Housing Starts

    Annual Housing Price Changes