HOUSING PRICES - SOUTHWEST

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DENVER MSA

HPI Price Walk:

2000 to Peak: Home prices rose only 40%, or 5.2% annualized.

Peak to Trough: Decline of 14%, or (6.2)% annualized.

Trough to COVID: Home prices surging again; up 5.8% annualized.

COVID to Fed Tightening: Home prices surge 17.5% annualized.

Fed Tightening: Home prices fall (3.8)% annualized.

Fed Pause to Current: Home prices fall (5.9)% annualized.

DENVER: HOME AFFORDABILITY

HOME AFFORDABILITY

 Home Affordability is comparable in cost to U.S. averages.

Home "P/E" Ratio = 4.5X.

 Median home purchase is 4.5X median family income compared to 4.2X for U.S.; takes ~4.5 years of a Denver area family's income to earn the sale price of the median priced home compared to ~4.2 years on average across the U.S.

NAHB HOI Index = 23.9%.

 24% of families can afford median priced home (NAHB HOI)

DALLAS MSA

HPI Price Walk:

2000 to Peak: Home prices rose only 26%, or 3.2% annualized.

Peak to Trough: Decline of 11%, or (7.1)% annualized.

Trough to COVID: Home prices surging again; up 5.0% annualized.

COVID to Fed Tightening: Home prices surge 20.9% annualized.

Fed Tightening: Home prices fall (2.5)% annualized.

Fed Pause to Current: Home prices fall (4.3)% annualized.

DALLAS: HOME AFFORDABILITY

HOME AFFORDABILITY

 Home Affordability is lower in cost than U.S. averages.

Home "P/E" Ratio = 3.7X.

 Median home purchase is 3.7X median family income compared to 4.2X for U.S.; takes ~3.7 years of a Denver area family's income to earn the sale price of the median priced home compared to ~4.2 years on average across the U.S.

NAHB HOI Index = 27.3%.

 27% of families can afford median priced home (NAHB HOI)

LAS VEGAS MSA

HPI Price Walk:

2000 to Peak: Home prices nearly 2.4X, or 13.0% annualized.

Peak to Trough: Decline of 62%, or (17.1)% annualized.

Trough to COVID: Home prices surging again; up 10.0% annualized.

COVID to Fed Tightening: Home prices surge 18.5% annualized.

Fed Tightening: Home prices fall (5.1)% annualized.

Fed Pause to Current: Home prices rise 4.5% annualized.

LAS VEGAS HOME AFFORDABILITY

HOME AFFORDABILITY

 Home Affordability is more costly than U.S. averages.

Home "P/E" Ratio = 5.1X.

 Median home purchase is 5.1X median family income compared to 4.2X for U.S.; takes ~5.1 years of a Las Vegas area family's income to earn the sale price of the median priced home compared to ~4.2 years on average across the U.S.

NAHB HOI Index = 14.2%.

 14% of families can afford median priced home (NAHB HOI)

PHOENIX MSA

HPI Price Walk:

2000 to Peak: Home prices nearly 2.3X, or 12.9% annualized.

Peak to Trough: Decline of 56%, or (15.5)% annualized.

Trough to COVID: Home prices surging again; up 8.4% annualized.

COVID to Fed Tightening: Home prices surge 23.9% annualized.

Fed Tightening: Home prices fall (5.1)% annualized.

Fed Pause to Current: Home prices rise 0.6% annualized.

PHOENIX: HOME AFFORDABILITY

HOME AFFORDABILITY

 Home Affordability is comparable in cost to U.S. averages.

Home "P/E" Ratio = 4.4X.

 Median home purchase is 4.4X median family income compared to 4.2X for U.S.; takes ~4.4 years of a Phoenix area family's income to earn the sale price of the median priced home compared to ~4.2 years on average across the U.S.

NAHB HOI Index = 21.7%.

 22% of families can afford median priced home (NAHB HOI)