HOUSING PRICES - CALIFORNIA

(Click on an image to open larger view)

SAN FRANCISCO MSA

HPI Price Walk:

2000 to Peak: Home prices more than doubled - up 118%, or 12.4% annualized.

Peak to Trough: Decline nearly equal to prior price gains - down 46%, or (21.6)% annualized.

Trough to COVID: Home prices surging again - recovering all price losses; up 7.7% annualized.

COVID to Fed Tightening: Home prices surge 16.8% annualized.

Fed Tightening: Home prices fall (9.7)% annualized.

Fed Pause to Current: Home prices fall (6.0)% annualized.

SAN FRANCISCO: HOME AFFORDABILITY

HOME AFFORDABILITY

 Home Affordability is significantly more costly than U.S. averages.

Home "P/E" Ratio = 8.1X.

 Median home purchase is 8.1X median family income compared to 4.2X for U.S.; takes ~8.1 years of a San Francisco area family's income to earn the sale price of the median priced home compared to ~4.2 years on average across the U.S.

NAHB HOI Index = 6.4%.

 6% of families can afford median priced home ((NAHB HOI - average of San Francisco and San Jose)

LOS ANGELES MSA

HPI Price Walk:

2000 to Peak: Home prices up 2.75X, or 174%, or 15.2% annualized.

Peak to Trough: Decline of 42%, or (20.2)% annualized.

Trough to COVID: Home prices surging again - recovering price losses; up 5.7% annualized.

COVID to Fed Tightening: Home prices surge 17.0% annualized.

Fed Tightening: Home prices fall (1.5)% annualized.

Fed Pause to Current: Home prices rise 3.0% annualized.

LOS ANGELES: HOME AFFORDABILITY

HOME AFFORDABILITY

 Home Affordability is significantly more costly than U.S. averages.

Home "P/E" Ratio = 8.6X.

 Median home purchase is 8.6X median family income compared to 4.2X for U.S.; takes ~8.6 years of a Los Angeles area family's income to earn the sale price of the median priced home compared to ~4.2 years on average across the U.S.

NAHB HOI Index = 2.8%.

 <3% of families can afford median priced home (NAHB HOI)

SAN DIEGO MSA

HPI Price Walk:

2000 to Peak: Home prices up 2.5X, or 150%, or 15.8% annualized.

Peak to Trough: Decline of 42%, or (16.0)% annualized.

Trough to COVID: Home prices surging again; up 5.6% annualized.

COVID to Fed Tightening: Home prices surge 21.5% annualized.

Fed Tightening: Home prices fall (3.1)% annualized.

Fed Pause to Current: Home prices rose 3.2% annualized.

SAN DIEGO: HOME AFFORDABILITY

HOME AFFORDABILITY

 Home Affordability is significantly more costly than U.S. averages.

Home "P/E" Ratio = 7.1X.

 Median home purchase is 7.1X median family income compared to 4.2X for U.S.; takes ~7.1 years of a San Diego area family's income to earn the sale price of the median priced home compared to ~4.2 years on average across the U.S.

NAHB HOI Index = 4.0%.

 4% of families can afford median priced home (NAHB HOI)